https://www.canva.com/design/DAG6I8DhyL8/DkOrFz2qyQiBwJoOJlqDjA/edit
The Challenge: Should Apple enter the smart glasses market, and if so, how should they position against Meta, Google, and Snap?
My Approach: The team analyzed this through the lens of Apple's existing ecosystem as a strategic moat. Apple's 1.5B iPhone users aren't just customers, they're infrastructure.
What We Did:
- Sized the market ($5B → $18B by 2030, potentially $36B with Apple's entry) and built a 5-year revenue forecast ($34.4B cumulative, profitable by Year 2)
- Defined three target segments (early adopters, fitness enthusiasts, fashion-forward consumers) with user personas grounded in real pain points — like a fitness trainer who can't stop looking at her wrist mid-session
- Mapped the competitive landscape and identified Apple's differentiation: ecosystem lock-in, privacy trust, and design DNA that competitors can't replicate without owning the full stack
- Designed a two-phase GTM: "Apple View" (audio + camera, 2026) → "Apple Glass" (full AR, 2028–30), mirroring Apple's proven crawl-walk-run playbook
- Built a KPI framework with leading metrics (CAC, AI feature adoption) and lagging metrics (NPS, 90-day retention, gross margin)
The Verdict: NPV of $1.92B at 10% discount rate, ~35% IRR, 3.5-year payback. A strong go based on the financials, but the real strategic value is defensive.
if Apple doesn't build this, Meta owns the next computing interface.